Auto sales preview: Car, two-wheeler sales likely grew modestly in July; here is why

Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland, Eicher Motors and other auto manufacturers are all set to report their monthly sales numbers starting August 1. According to Anand Rathi, while retail volumes in two-wheelers are likely to have grown in double-digits in July, those in passenger vehicles are likely to have remained steady.

Auto makers are scheduled to report their monthly sales numbers starting August 1. | Image: Reuters

Auto manufacturers — from the likes of Maruti Suzuki India, Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor, Ashok Leyland and Eicher Motors — are all set to report their sales numbers for July 20 starting August 1. Analysts expect sales volumes in the segments of passenger vehicles and two-wheelers to have registered modest growth owing to a high base in the corresponding period a year ago.

According to Anand Rathi, while retail volumes in two-wheelers are likely to have grown in double-digits in July, those in passenger vehicles are likely to have remained steady. The high base last year, according to the brokerage, was on account of an earlier festive season.

Here are some of the other key points, as listed by the brokerage in a report:

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Commercial vehicle sales likely to have grown in high single digits supported
Tractor sales likely to be positive

According to Anand Rathi, while healthy retails and production ramp-ups are likely to have supported sales in the CV segment, tractor volumes are likely to have been aided by an uptick in kharif sowing and a low base.

Anand Rathi has a positive view on the auto space, with Hero MotoCorp and Ashok Leyland as its preferred picks.

Here's a summary of the brokerage's estimates for auto makers for the month:

Volumes (in '000s)	July 2023 estimate	July 2022 actual	Year-on-year change (%) estimate
Maruti Suzuki	180	175.9	2
M&M (auto)	63.5	56.1	13
M&M (farm)	24.5	23.3	5
Tata Motors (domestic CVs)	33.8	31.5	7
Tata Motors (domestic PVs)	46	47.5	-3
Ashok Leyland M&H (CVs)	9.5	7.3	30
Ashok Leyland (total)	15.6	13.6	14
Eicher Motors (CVs)	6.4	6	7
Bajaj Auto	345	354.7	-3
Hero MotoCorp	440	445.6	-1
Royal Enfield	73	55.6	31
TVS Motors	320	314.6	2
Escorts	5.8	5.4	8
Source: Anand Rathi Research, regulatory filings

How the top auto makers fared in June 2023

According to auto dealers' body FADA, domestic retail sales in the sector rose 9.6 per cent on a year-on-year basis to 18,63,868 units in June amid growth across segments.

Out of the total sales, volumes in passenger vehicles grew 4.8 per cent to 2,95,299 units, according to the data.

Particular	Jun-23	Year-on-year change (%)	Zee Business estimate
Maruti Suzuki total sales	1,59,418	2.3	1,68,000
Tata Motors domestic PV sales	47,235	4.5	45,000
Tata Motors domestic CV sales	34,314	-7.9	31,500
M&M auto sales	62,429	15.4	62,000
M&M tractor sales	44,478	6.3	41,000
Hero MotoCorp total sales	4,36,993	-9.9	5,00,000
Bajaj Auto two-wheeler sales	2,93,649	-7.1	3,00,000
Bajaj Auto total sales	3,40,981	-1.7	3,49,000
TVS Motor two-wheeler sales	3,04,401	3.6	3,11,000
TVS Motor total sales	3,16,411	2.6	3,23,400
Royal Enfield sales	77,109	25.6	77,000
Eicher Motors VECV sales	6,715	6.5	6,600
Ashok Leyland CV sales	15,221	4.7	14,700
Escorts total sales	9,850	-2	10,040
Source: Zee Business research, regulatory filings