STOCK MARKET LIVE: 'Nifty short term trend is positive'; should you exit YES Bank, Reliance Power shares or hold? Here are experts take on various stocks
BSE Sensex and NSE's Nifty 50 ended the day on a flat note. Indian Indices open higher on Thursday amid positive global ques. BSE Sensex was trading higher at 39,707.65, up 115.57 points or 0.29%, while Nifty 50 was trading at 11,879.70, up 0.27% at 9:20 am. Asian share markets opened higher on Thursday on hope that there might be a breakthrough in the US and China trade war, ahead of a meeting between the two countries this weekend. On Wednesday, Sensex closed at 157 points higher at 39,592 while Nifty50 closed 51 points higher at 11,848.
Here are the experts' analysis on various shares, indices and sectors:
BSE Sensex and NSE's Nifty 50 ended the day on a flat note. Indian Indices open higher on Thursday amid positive global ques. BSE Sensex was trading higher at 39,707.65, up 115.57 points or 0.29%, while Nifty 50 was trading at 11,879.70, up 0.27% at 9:20 am. Asian share markets opened higher on Thursday on hope that there might be a breakthrough in the US and China trade war, ahead of a meeting between the two countries this weekend. On Wednesday, Sensex closed at 157 points higher at 39,592 while Nifty50 closed 51 points higher at 11,848.
Here are the experts' analysis on various shares, indices and sectors:
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Buy call on Silver Silver (July delivery): Silver (July delivery) prices are likely to trade on a positive note with immediate support at 37,580, next support is at 37,350. The important resistance is at 38,600 level. Until prices close below 37,350, buying is advisable, said a JM Financial report.
Crude oil (SELL): Crude oil prices are trading on a negative note. The immediate support is at 4,040, next support is at 4,000. The important resistance is at 4,150 levels. Until prices close above 4,150, selling on rise is advisable, said a JM Financial report.
Gold (August delivery) (BUY)
Gold (August delivery) prices are likely to trade on a positive note. The immediate support is at 34,080, next support is at 34,000. The important resistance is at 34,410 levels. Until prices are holding below 34,000, buying is advisable, said a JM Financial report.
Stock market to stay range-bound at around 12,000: Edelweiss
The budget presents an opportunity and reflects a need, to get growth back. The market, with relatively good performance (+6% YTD) and high valuations, seems to be baking in quite a lot, says brokerage Edelweiss.
"Till we see growth coming through, business risk appetite building up or the most necessary conditions for the same, our market view will stay measured—12,000 Nifty, June 2020 (+1%), with a defensive bias."
Budget 2019 likely to focus on the rural economy, affordable housing, says brokerage Edelweiss: Check experts analysis on realty stocks
Over the past two years, the Narendra Modi-led NDA government has ramped up spending on infrastructure while maintaining the fiscal deficit at 3.5% of GDP. This was achieved initially through the oil windfall and later by cutting back on spending in the rural/social sector, said brokerage Edelweiss.
"We think the focus now could shift to the rural/social sector. Income support scheme is already underway and ramp up in affordable housing may also be needed to give a fillip to the beleaguered real estate sector. We do not expect material changes on tax front."
Realty stocks have gone up substantially today on the hope that the government may come up with sops for the sector. Nifty Realty index closed about 2% higher today. Real estate sector stocks of Prestige, Godrej Group, Brigade Group, Sobha Developers, Oberoi Realty, Sun Tech, DLF were among the gainers today. For expert analysis on sectoral stocks, check earlier updates.
Fiscal expansion is unlikely to push inflation, says Edelweiss
The domestic slowdown has spread to consumption while investment and exports remain weak. The global economy too is losing momentum as seen in global trade, PMI, etc. This warrants a fiscal response. Surely, domestic savings are low, but the key to savings revival lies in reviving spending and, hence, incomes through a fiscal push, said brokerage Edelweiss.
"Fiscal expansion is unlikely to push inflation and rates up in the current macroeconomic context. Historically, fiscal relaxation (amid weak demand) accompanied by monetary easing has led to lower rates. This will be further aided by the Federal Reserve's dovish turn. Inflation is correlated more with the global food price cycle, which remains subdued."
Budget 2019: Will a potential fiscal push undermine inflation stability or rates outlook?
Unlikely historically, a fiscal push supported by monetary easing has lured rates lower, brokerage Edelweiss. This looks probable even now with the Federal Reserves on the cusp of an easing cycle. Meanwhile, domestic inflation outlook is more correlated with global food prices, which remain benign. Hence, for now, reflation should be prioritised over reforms. Rural/affordable housing could be the priority area. And we do not expect big changes in taxes, it said.
Budget 2019: Which sectors may gain? Check Edelweiss sectoral review
The changing domestic and global macroeconomic context (since the interim budget in February) calls for a reassessment of the fiscal stance. The domestic slowdown has become more pronounced and is evident from subdued private sector sentiment, said brokerage Edelweiss. The global economy too has softened substantively. Thus, we think, it will be prudent to lift government spending that can offset private sector slowdown.
Besides, the Federal Reserve's dovish turn allows for a fiscal push. Meanwhile, the fiscal math too needs a review. FY19 tax revenue growth has turned out to be just 8%, falling short of the revised estimate (RE) of 17%. Therefore, turning the tables to 13% growth in FY20 (interim budget) could be challenging, it said.
Nifty short term trend is still positive: HDFC securities
After showing a smart upside bounce from the lows, the Nifty struggled to sustain the highs today and closed the day slightly lower. A small negative candle was formed today with long upper shadow.
"Technically, this pattern indicates an inability of bulls to sustain above the resistance of 11,850 levels (resistance as per the concept of change in polarity). Minor volatility was seen today mainly due to a F&O expiry of June series, said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC securities.
The short term trend of Nifty is still positive with range bound movement. "Only a decisive/sustainable move above 11,850 levels could have a further positive impact on the market ahead, otherwise minor short term correction could be in place."
Sensex, Nifty ended that day flat.
Ahead of Budget 2019, Prestige, Godrej Group, Brigade Group, Sobha Developers, Oberoi Realty, Sun Tech, DLF are among the gainers in real estate sector today.
Apollo Tyres share: (Zee Business TV experts panel stock recommendations) An expert said upward movement can be seen in this share. It is possible that in 2-4 days, the stock may cross Rs 215 level. The share is trading at 202.75, a rise of 1.10% over the previous day's close.
HDFC Standard Life share: (Zee Business TV experts panel stock recommendations) An expert gave a buy call on this share. He recommended stop loss at Rs 440 and target of Rs 475. The share is trading at 453.6, up 2.61%.
YES Securities view on stock market: YES Securities said that it expects the Nifty to inch upwards to 13,000 but at the same time the brokerage believed that 2019 will be a year of consolidation for the broader market. The smart thing to do this year is to not be in a hurry to deploy funds. Be extremely selective, especially with midcaps and invest in a staggered manner, it said.
Expectation from Union Budget 2019-20
"We expect the government to persist with reasonable levels of deficit on the fiscal front, as indicated in their earlier budget. The FM’s reassurance on sticking with the path of fiscal prudence in the years ahead will be equally important. The next on the agenda would be the much-needed boost to economic growth. Towards this front, the most pertinent measure would be providing capital buffers like an MSMSE fund, to make liquidity widely available," said Amar Ambani, President & Research Head, YES Securities.
Reliance Power (EXIT): (Zee Business TV experts panel stock recommendations) Technical analyst Simi Bhaumik said that the outlook of the stock is not good. Therefore, the people who have invested in this share should exit the share on any rise and buy stocks where they can make up the loss. Technical chart also shows bearish mood in this stock. The stock is trading at 4.42, down 0.67%. This stock has lost 86.93% of its value in a year.