High inflation, rising interest rates may cause near-term volatility; Nifty may test 21,000 in FY23, says analyst

Sectorally, Nifty Metal, energy, and IT stocks led the rally on the D-street in the previous financial year. Each of these indices closed the year with nearly 62%, 42%, and 41% respectively.

Bank Nifty was an underperformer with around 9% gains: PTI

The Indian markets concluded Financial Year 2021-22 (FY22) on a strong note despite a slew of headwinds, including Russia Ukraine war. Benchmarks Nifty50 and the Sensex each gained over 18%, while the Nifty mid-cap and small-cap indices added over 25% for the year ended March 31, 2021.

Sectorally, Nifty Metal, energy, and IT stocks led the rally on the D-street in the previous financial year. Each of these indices closed the year with nearly 62%, 42%, and 41% respectively.

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However, Bank Nifty was an underperformer with around 9% gains. "Delay in credit growth revival and rate-hike concerns affected the performance of Banking and Financial stock," Emkay Global Financial Services had said in a note.

As the domestic equity market stepped into a fresh year in a style with benchmarks finishing the first trading session of FY23 with over 1% gains each, Sunil Nyati, Managing Director of Swastika Investmart Ltd speaks about how the market fared in FY22, factors that drove equity market, IPO and its impact and outlook for the current financial year—Excerpts:

1) How will you sum up FY 2021-22 from the equity market's point of view?

FY22 turned out to be a good year for the Indian equity market despite many headwinds. Nifty and Sensex ended FY22 with a decent gain of around 18%. The first half was very good, while the market entered into consolidation in the second half combined with high volatility.

Speaking of sectors, almost all sectors ended FY22 on a positive note—the metal and IT sectors were leaders with a smart gain of 62% and 41% respectively. The banking index is ending with a moderate gain of 9%, while the Auto and FMCG sectors underperformed due to high commodity prices.

The beauty of the second half of FY22 is the strong resilience of domestic investors amid several global headwinds and relentless FIIs' (Foreign Institutional Investors) selling.

2) What were the major factors that drove the action in the equity markets in FY22?

The first half was dominated by Covid’s 3rd wave, unlocking, a strong earnings recovery. However, in the second half, the market had to deal with tight monetary policy, high inflation, geopolitical tension, and one of the highest selling by the FIIs, but as I mentioned earlier, the market has shown strong resilience amid several headwinds.

3) A large number of IPOs were also launched during the current fiscal year. Do you think it also added to improved market sentiment?

The market was in a strong bull run in the first half of FY21 that created euphoria in the primary market. We have witnessed many loss-making companies come out with unrealistic valuations and now their stocks are trading at a much lower price compared to their issue price. Therefore, in the second half of FY22, we saw a negative sentiment in the market, especially in the primary market.

4) What are your views on the equity markets going forward? What factors should investors keep in mind in FY23?

We managed to climb all the walls of worries and are ready to outperform in FY23, however, high inflation, and rising interest rates may cause near-term volatility. Apart from inflation, any surprise on the Covid front could be a major risk for the market.

We believe that the upcoming quarters will be challenging for India Inc. due to high raw material prices. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook is very bullish for the Indian economy, especially the economy facing sectors. If we talk about the levels, then there is a good chance that Nifty may cross the 20,000-mark in FY23, or even it can test the auspicious level of 21,000.

Disclaimer: The views/suggestions/advice expressed here in this article are solely by investment experts. Zee Business suggests its readers to consult with their investment advisers before making any financial decision.

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